October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) right now is up +0.11 (+0.70%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) is down -1.20 (-0.26%).
Sugar costs right now are combined, with NY sugar climbing to a 1.5-week excessive. Power in crude costs has sparked some brief overlaying in sugar futures as WTI crude (CLX25) rallied to a 1.75-month excessive right now. Greater crude costs profit ethanol costs and will immediate international sugar mills to divert extra cane crushing to ethanol manufacturing quite than sugar, thereby curbing sugar provides.
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The prospects of considerable international sugar provides are unfavourable for costs. On Tuesday, NY sugar posted a 4.25-year nearest-futures low, and London sugar posted a 4-year low as they prolonged their 7-month downtrend. StoneX on Tuesday projected a worldwide sugar surplus of +2.8 MMT for the upcoming 2025/26 season, switching from a deficit of -4.7 MMT within the 2024/25 season.
Greater sugar output in Brazil is bearish for costs. Final Wednesday, Unica reported that Brazil’s Heart-South sugar output within the second half of August rose by +18% y/y to three.872 MT. Additionally, the proportion of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills within the second half of August elevated to 54.20% from 48.78% the identical time final 12 months. Nonetheless, cumulative 2025-26 Heart-South sugar output via August fell -1.9% y/y to 26.758 MMT.
One other bearish issue for sugar was final Tuesday’s assertion from sugar dealer Sucden that India might divert 4 MMT of sugar to make ethanol in 2025/26, which isn’t sufficient to ease the nation’s sugar surplus and will immediate India’s sugar mills to export as a lot as 4 MMT of sugar, above earlier expectations of two MMT. India is the world’s second-largest sugar producer.
On August 29, the Worldwide Sugar Group (ISO) forecast a worldwide sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season, the sixth consecutive 12 months of sugar deficits. The ISO tasks a worldwide 2025/26 sugar deficit of -231,000 MT, bettering from a -4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024/25. The ISO additionally tasks 2025/26 international sugar manufacturing will rise by +3.3% y/y to 180.6 MMT, and 2025/26 international sugar consumption will enhance +0.3% y/y to 180.8 MMT.
Expectations for considerable sugar provides are bearish for costs. On June 30, commodities dealer Czarnikow projected a 7.5 MMT international sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the most important surplus in 8 years. On Might 22, the USDA, in its biannual report, projected that international 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would enhance by +4.7% y/y to a file 189.318 MMT, with international sugar ending shares at 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% y/y.
The outlook for greater sugar exports from India is unfavourable for sugar costs, as considerable monsoon rains might produce a bumper sugar crop. India’s Meteorological Division reported on Monday that the cumulative monsoon rain in India as of September 22 was 893.8 mm, or 7% above regular.
The outlook for greater sugar manufacturing in India is bearish for costs. On June 2, India’s Nationwide Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +19% y/y to 34.9 MMT, citing bigger planted cane acreage. That might comply with a -17.5% y/y decline in India’s sugar manufacturing in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT, based on the Indian Sugar Mills Affiliation (ISMA).
The outlook for greater sugar manufacturing in Thailand is bearish for sugar costs. On Might 2, Thailand’s Workplace of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand’s 2024/25 sugar manufacturing rose +14% y/y to 10.00 MMT. Thailand is the world’s third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter of sugar.
On August 19, Conab, Brazil’s authorities crop forecasting company, minimize its Brazil 2025/26 manufacturing estimate by 3.1% to 44.5 MMT from a earlier estimate of 45.9 MMT. In July, Conab reported that 2024/25 Brazil sugar manufacturing fell by -3.4% y/y to 44.118 MMT, citing decrease sugarcane yields as a consequence of drought and extreme warmth.
The USDA, in its bi-annual report launched Might 22, projected that international 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +4.7% y/y to a file 189.318 MMT and that international 2025/26 human sugar consumption would enhance +1.4% y/y to a file 177.921 MMT. The USDA additionally forecasted that 2025/26 international sugar ending shares would climb +7.5% y/y to 41.188 MMT. The USDA’s Overseas Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise +2.3% y/y to a file 44.7 MMT FAS predicted that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise +25% y/y to 35.3 MMT as a consequence of favorable monsoon rains and elevated sugar acreage. FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing will climb +2% y/y to 10.3 MMT.
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