October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) in the present day is down -0.28 (-1.80%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) is down -5.60 (-1.22%).
Sugar costs prolonged Wednesday’s selloff in the present day, with NY sugar slumping to a 4.25-year nearest-futures low and London sugar sliding to a 4-year low. Ramped-up sugar manufacturing in Brazil is boosting provides and undercutting costs. Unica reported Wednesday that Brazil’s Middle-South sugar output within the second half of August rose by +18% y/y to three.872 MT. Additionally, the proportion of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills within the second half of August elevated to 54.20% from 48.78% the identical time final yr. Nevertheless, cumulative 2025-26 Middle-South sugar output by way of August fell -1.9% y/y to 26.758 MMT.
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Sugar costs had been already on the defensive from Tuesday, when sugar dealer Sucden stated that India might divert 4 MMT of sugar to make ethanol in 2025/26, which isn’t sufficient to ease the nation’s sugar surplus and will immediate India’s sugar mills to export as a lot as 4 MMT of sugar, above earlier expectations of two MMT. India is the world’s second-largest sugar producer.
Sugar costs have been in a downtrend over the previous six months on the outlook for larger sugar manufacturing in Brazil. Covrig Analytics just lately reported that Brazil’s sugar mills are prioritizing sugar manufacturing over ethanol, crushing extra cane for sugar. This development is predicted to proceed as harvesting peaks, pushed by drier cane crops that immediate mills to provide extra sugar.
An extreme quick place by funds in NY sugar might gas beneficial properties in any short-covering rally. Final Friday’s weekly Dedication of Merchants (COT) report confirmed funds boosted their net-short positions in NY sugar futures by +32,849 to 182,608 within the week ended September 9, essentially the most in nearly 6 years.
On August 29, the Worldwide Sugar Group (ISO) forecast a world sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season, the sixth consecutive yr of sugar deficits. The ISO tasks a world 2025/26 sugar deficit of -231,000 MT, bettering from a -4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024/25. The ISO additionally tasks 2025/26 world sugar manufacturing will rise by +3.3% y/y to 180.6 MMT, and 2025/26 world sugar consumption will improve +0.3% y/y to 180.8 MMT.
On August 19, Conab, Brazil’s authorities crop forecasting company, reduce its Brazil 2025/26 manufacturing estimate by 3.1% to 44.5 MMT from a earlier estimate of 45.9 MMT. In July, Conab reported that 2024/25 Brazil sugar manufacturing fell by -3.4% y/y to 44.118 MMT, citing decrease sugarcane yields attributable to drought and extreme warmth.
Expectations for plentiful sugar provides are bearish for costs. On June 30, commodities dealer Czarnikow projected a 7.5 MMT world sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the most important surplus in 8 years. On Might 22, the USDA, in its biannual report, projected that world 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would improve by +4.7% y/y to a report 189.318 MMT, with world sugar ending shares at 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% y/y.
The outlook for larger sugar exports from India is destructive for sugar costs, as plentiful monsoon rains might produce a bumper sugar crop. India’s Meteorological Division reported in the present day that cumulative monsoon rain in India was 875.3 mm as of September 18, or 8% above regular.
The outlook for larger sugar manufacturing in India is bearish for costs. On June 2, India’s Nationwide Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +19% y/y to 34.9 MMT, citing bigger planted cane acreage. That may comply with a -17.5% y/y decline in India’s sugar manufacturing in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT, based on the Indian Sugar Mills Affiliation (ISMA).
The outlook for larger sugar manufacturing in Thailand is bearish for sugar costs. On Might 2, Thailand’s Workplace of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand’s 2024/25 sugar manufacturing rose +14% y/y to 10.00 MMT. Thailand is the world’s third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter of sugar.
The USDA, in its bi-annual report launched Might 22, projected that world 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +4.7% y/y to a report 189.318 MMT and that world 2025/26 human sugar consumption would improve +1.4% y/y to a report 177.921 MMT. The USDA additionally forecasted that 2025/26 world sugar ending shares would climb +7.5% y/y to 41.188 MMT. The USDA’s Overseas Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise +2.3% y/y to a report 44.7 MMT FAS predicted that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise +25% y/y to 35.3 MMT attributable to favorable monsoon rains and elevated sugar acreage. FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing will climb +2% y/y to 10.3 MMT.
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